Human societies have been dealing with issues of mobility and congestion for a lot longer than we probably realise. Ancient cities had many modern “traffic problems” and serious congestion has existed in Rome since the time of Julius Caesar, when the movement of carts in daylight hours was prohibited!
The UK has its own set of home grown challenges, which relate to our high dependence on motor vehicles, and the resultant local and global pollution. In the UK, over 90% of all passenger traffic and 80% over freight traffic is transported by road. We are the most car dependent country in Europe, with the highest annual average usage, most of which is for short trip journeys, (80% are less than 10 miles in total). In stop-start or congested driving conditions, vehicle emission levels are three times that of “flow traffic”. And while vehicle manufacturers have reduced up to 95% of the “toxic” emissions in newer petrol and diesel cars, mainly as a result of the catalytic converter and sophisticated engine management systems, driver behaviour can increase the output of emissions and consumption of fuel by at least a third in the same vehicle, over the same route, as a result of greater and erratic acceleration and braking and increased average speeds.
Predictions regarding the “peak” in oil availability have also been with us for quite a while. As long ago as 1956, a research scientist with Shell had warned that crude oil production could peak as early as the 1970’s. Most commentators agree that world production of oil will peak around 2015, and that from then on, the extraction of the remaining reserves will be harder, more expensive and more environmentally damaging.
Recently, many of us breathed a sigh, believing that biofuels were finally going to help us solve the problem of our over dependence on oil. Now a viable solution seemed possible, one which would reduce our output of vehicular carbon dioxide, as well as eliminate many of the other nasty pollutants we associate with cars, buses and trucks – carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, hydrocarbons, lead, fine particulate matter predominant amongst others. We are now far better informed about the side effects and drawbacks of switching to bio ethanol and biodiesel to power even a small number of the 600 million road based vehicles in use throughout the world today. We still face a bewildering and complex array of alternative fuels and vehicle powertrain options – all with seemingly different eco-credentials, but none a wholly satisfactory solution. As well as the bio fuel options, there are vehicles available that use gaseous fuels such as CNG and LPG 1, battery electric cars, (such as the G-Wiz available in the UK), series and parallel hybrid vehicles, (such as the Toyota Prius), micro-hybrids, the hydrogen fuel cell hybrid, and methanol fuel cell. Cars running on compressed air such as the Air Car are not new, (Rudolph Diesel used compressed air to run some of his cars in the 1890s) and seem to offer another technological and environmental solution to the electric battery vehicle. At the same time, developments in existing petrol / diesel vehicle technologies such as compressed ignition direct injection, advance transmission and port fuel injection systems which can be fitted in lightweight and small engine vehicles are also providing highly viable low environmental impact options. These include the VW Bluemotion and Citroen C1.
So where does this leave the driver – other than confused over the competing alternatives available? Many of the “green car” options around today have some controversial and highly complex hidden environmental costs. If you have the time, and the knowledge, one of the best ways to get to grip with the issues is to consider the options within a complicated matrix of social, political, technological, economic, utility and environmental considerations – then factor in the short, medium and long term time factors. Hardly an option for most of us who make transport choices which are secondary to our main concerns about getting to work on time or maintaining our connections to family and friends.
Its no wonder the car industry seems as confused as the rest of us in this game of commercial roulette. The uncertainty about a replacement foir the internal combustion engine is further compounded by the rollercoaster nature of profit and loss cycles that are typical in the automobile industry. And don’t forget the vested interest that comes from over 100 years of capital investment already made in the internal combustion engine by most of the major players. There is also a growing recognition that we are all somewhat missing the point – or at least fixated on trying to solve the wrong problems. We should be re-thinking the weight, shape, size and utility of our current vehicles. Motor vehicles are far too heavy, material intensive, unsafe and a highly energy inefficient means of moving around. 80% of the fuel energy used to move a car is lost before it even gets to the wheels, because cars are so heavy and require huge amounts of energy in large engines, just to accelerate to move their own weight. Most of the time, car engines are idling – using a tiny fraction of their power and are therefore highly inefficient. The motor industry answer has been to put more and more effort and complexity into wringing slightly more efficiency and lower pollutant output from the existing engine and transmission technology. Of the 20% of fuel energy that is actually used to move the wheels of a car, a third goes in heating the air the car pushed aside, a third heats the tyres and road, and a third heats the brakes. 2
We all spend too long thinking about the market for new cars – ignoring too often the impact of the steady expansion in the total number of cars in circulation (or stationary) on our roads. While there is a segment of the market that demands new cars, the real demand is for personal transportation, or car ownership that can be fulfilled with used, second, third and fourth hand cars. At the same time, there has been a gradual transformation of the role of the new car from functional transport provider to fashion accessory, something that makes demand for individual models, powertrain options and fuel types far more volatile.
Most of the big car manufacturers are putting their vehicle option eggs into many baskets. There are too many uncertainties for them to bet on a single solution. These include fuel price instability and inelasticity, changing consumer preferences and possible future technological breakthroughs that will determine the truly green-car format for once and for all. As customer and mobility consumers, we need to be thinking about changing vehicle product stewardship and breaking from our tradition of ownership so that we lease a mobility service – rather than purchasing expensive and fast depreciating commodity items. The motor industry makes its money predominantly not in making and selling new cars but in vehicle repair and after sales, vehicle servicing, retrofitting and purchase finance deals. It will in future have to find ways to make money by offering a variety of vehicle and fuel types that are more closely aligned to local market conditions, local infrastructure, the availability of different, local fuel types and customer preference for vehicles which closely meet utility and emerging mobility requirements. Regulators, policy makers, consumers and manufacturers all have an important role to play in bringing about the necessary change that will have to replace our current culture of freedom of mobility and ability to pollute so that we share the environmental gain.
Niki Leahy started working life as an environmental and economic regeneration consultant. She has subsequently worked in the public and private sectors, predominantly as an environmental strategist for General Motors. Her particular expertise and interest lie in environmental management systems, environmental product development and environmental policy making.
Recent clients include the Toyota, the Guinness Trust, FSN Publishing Ltd, and the Swiss luxury goods group Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA.
Niki has an economic degree, an MBA from the Manchester Business School and an MSc in Environmental Management for Business from Cranfield University.
Niki won the ACCA “Best First Reporter” for the Vauxhall Motors Environment Report, in 1997.She has had papers published regularly on systems and strategies for implementing environmental management and financial accountancy.
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